Everything is an Application


Nothing around you is certain. People walk swiftly to their cars with keys in hand and take an entire two minutes to open the doors. They probably thought they would get it right in ten seconds. Some wake up and walk to the bus stop to get a bus to work. There is a certain expectation that they will get a bus on time and get to work on time. Truth is, sometimes the buses come full or the traffic starts early. We don’t know for sure whether our assumptions about the future are precisely correct, we just apply.

The same scheme of behavior works for greater systems such as the stock exchange. Some companies come on strong on their first day in the market with a legion of investors reaching out for a piece of the juicy IPO share pie. No one is quite sure that the prices will ascend but they still apply for it. And sure enough there have been enough cases where these bullish traders record losses after a year of holding on to their stocks. Continue reading


Success programming


When I started this blog I swore never to write about how to be successful. We have enough of such blogs out there and frankly there’s nothing new about the subject anymore. Success is a broad term but in actuarial science, we usually say that a success is any positive result from a trial of an event. It could be tossing a coin and hoping a head comes through or it could be asking for a hand in marriage. The probability of success increases with the number of trials. This is because there are more ways of failing with additional trials and if each row of failures is considered a “success at failing” then it should also get harder to successfully fail for so many times in a row. This leaves us with a chance at actual success. Technically, the term for this is the exponential distribution. The text book example is the number of times a phone has to ring in order for someone to pick it up. The number of times it rings relates to the probability of someone picking up the phone. Analyzing exponential distributions is very good ground for experimental research. You could assess how many follows you make before a follow back is received on twitter, how many invites to a page are given before someone actually follows, how many times a phone rings before it is picked up, how many times you call someone before he picks your call… etc.

So with my little memory of basic programming I decided to take this concept and ride with it. What if you could program your chances at success with anything through a logic program. With the correct code your only obligation would be to follow it strictly. You just have the task on deciding how to stay focused on maintaining progress.

For instance, you want to get a job.

We are all familiar with the usual success program:

Success program 1

But what if the response is not really positive? You could adjust it further,

Success program 2

Ok, so now assuming that as a sensible guy, a positive response only counts for you if they say they want to take you through an interview. But what if you still don’t get hired after the interview well?

Success program 3

This way you have a foolproof policy to keep you job hunting until you actually get the job you are looking for.

But these statements are pretty simple. You probably want to shorten the time you take to job hunt. So you decide to also network even as you try to send cold call applications. Now…

Success program 4

The idea of connecting with the employee is so that you can have an inside scoop of what your chances of landing a job there really are.

This might all seem very mechanical and robotic at first. As you continue to fine tune your success program, you realize that it becomes really human like. It starts to sound like the kind of decisions a normal person would make in his mind when pursuing something. The only difference is that with humans, a lot of consistency and uniformity will be lacking. You will only network when you can and you will only send applications when things look tough but stall a little as soon as your first interview comes through.

The success program impersonalizes your efforts so that you only need to think of the creative aspects of making the solution and not how to go about the already made solution. Once you zero in on how to stay focused on the already designed solution you should be on a one track path to the goal. It fine tunes your decisions to provide accurate and trackable results. You don’t have to code it, you just have to have it clearly outlined it in your mind. To believe in it completely, it has to make complete sense. No portion of it should stick out without an explicable set of instructions.